Strong white maize supply ahead of the 2026/27 season

South Africa enters the 2026/27 marketing year with a second large white maize crop, high opening stocks and no imports expected. Prices have settled at export parity, feed mills are switching to white maize, and the surplus will move into the region and deep-sea markets.

Supply

Grain SA’s June supply and demand estimate put the white maize crop at about 9.3 million tonnes on 1.66 million hectares, with total commercial supply near 12 million tonnes once opening stocks of around 1.9 million tonnes are added. No imports are expected for the season.

Demand and price

With white maize trading below yellow maize, feed demand for white maize is projected to rise sharply, to roughly 2 million tonnes from a little over 500,000 tonnes the previous season. Domestic demand rises accordingly, and exports are projected at about 1.6 million tonnes, mainly to Zimbabwe, Botswana and Lesotho by road, with more deep-sea exports than last year. Spot prices in June sat near R3,165 a tonne, at or just above export parity.

What it means

For buyers, this is the season to contract forward: supply is deep, basis is soft and the risk is in the 2027 planting window, not this one. For farmers in our AAPP programme, the guaranteed offtake at a SAFEX-related price matters most in a year like this, when spot prices are at parity and the buyer of last resort is the export market. For the region, the surplus above South African demand is well over 3 million tonnes, which is what feeds our maize meal channel into the DRC and kernels into Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Figures are from Grain SA’s June 2026 supply and demand estimate and the CEC; they are revised monthly, so check the latest release before pricing.